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Analysis of Current and Expected Rental Shortfall and Potential Eviction Filings in the U.S.

Published on September 28, 2020

NCSHA Navy LogoThis report, produced by STOUT, estimates roughly 10 – 14 million renter households — home to 23 – 34 million renters — were behind on their rent by a total of roughly $12 – $17 billion as of September 14, 2020.

These renters will owe $25 – $34 billion by January 2021, when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s nationwide eviction moratorium expires. This rent shortfall estimate does not include any interest or fees landlords may charge, as allowed by the CDC eviction moratorium.

By January 2021, up to 8.4 million renter households, which include 20.1 million individual renters, could experience an eviction filing.

Given what appears to be a slow economic recovery, it is reasonable to expect ongoing elevated unemployment, high rent burden among low-income renter households, continued accumulation of unpaid rent, and continued risk of eviction beyond January 2021.

The report shows the current and projected rent shortfall and estimated potential eviction filings in every state. For example:

State Estimated Range of Rent Shortfall
by January 2021
Estimated Potential Eviction Filings
by January 2021
Arizona $461 million – $630 million 150,000
Colorado $469 million – $666 million 140,000
Florida $2.1 billion – $2.7 billion 640,000
Iowa $161 million – $211 million   70,000
Maine $55 million – $81 million   20,000
Michigan $603 million – $808 million 240,000
North Carolina $632 million – $824 million 240,000
Pennsylvania $697 million – $958 million 240,000
South Carolina $329 million – $429 million 120,000
Wisconsin $345 million – $465 million 140,000


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